The hottest Spring Festival homecoming tide is ahe

2022-10-16
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The Spring Festival "homecoming tide" is ahead of schedule, and the medium-term trend of "Dr. copper" is not optimistic

the Spring Festival in 2019 is more than a month away. The annual homecoming tide has started early, and the figure of migrant workers with large luggage in railway stations and subway stations seems to appear earlier than in previous years. In the view of non-ferrous metal analysts, this phenomenon has intriguing significance for the "Dr. copper" who is closely related to the domestic macro-economy

the trend of nonferrous metals is under pressure

Li Li and Tang Yufeng, analysts of Jinrui futures, said in a recent research report that in the past month, reports of "migrant workers returning home in advance" have occurred frequently, which may be related to the decline in economic prosperity. Affected by external macro disturbance factors and China's economy entering a downward cycle, the operating rate of construction sites and factories has decreased, and the demand for labor has decreased. The capital market has already reflected the slowdown in economic growth, and we need to pay attention to whether the decline will exceed expectations

China's macroeconomic data is weak, market concerns are fermenting, and under the pressure of domestic inventory recovery on fundamentals, non-ferrous metals, known as the "thermometer" of economic fundamentals, are under pressure. On Monday, nonferrous metal futures fell across the board, and the main futures contracts of Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai zinc and Shanghai nickel all fell by more than 1%

in terms of news, Caixin China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) recorded 49.7 in December 2018, expected to be 50.2, with the previous value of 50.2, falling below the boom and bust line for the first time since May 2017, indicating that the downward pressure on the domestic economy is gradually increasing

although there are other PLA foaming methods in the industry

"the downward pressure of the macro economy is gradually apparent, and the demand for domestic and overseas terminal copper will shift gears and decelerate. The concern of domestic terminal demand will be reflected in home appliances, automobiles and other industries. The growth rate of the global apparent demand for refined copper may fall to 2.3%. The macro environment has a great impact on demand expectations, and the risk points in 2019 lie in real estate, debt problems, trade environment and so on." Cao Yang, an analyst at the East stock exchange futures

copper price or group leader is assumed by Vice Premier Ma Kai of the State Council.

"recently, institutions have successively released their outlook for 2019. According to the research report, the market's expectations for the decline in global growth are relatively consistent, ----- Autodesk software (China) Ltd. Jiegang Senior Software Testing Engineer. All economies will show some pressure, but they hold different views on the strength of the decline. Judging from the historical forecast of, the final trend of the market is often different from the consensus expectation at the beginning of the year. " Li Li and Tang Yufeng said that the views of domestic institutions on the copper price in 2019 are mostly based on the shock market under tight balance, and the view that the shock is weak is in the majority

from the perspective of fundamentals, Cao Yang analyzed that from the perspective of raw materials, the growth rate of copper supply is expected to be stable in 2019, and the annual growth rate is expected to drop slightly to 2.7%. However, the investment in copper mines is booming and renewable resources are progressing step by step. After 2020, the raw material market may have explosive growth. In terms of smelting, it is expected that domestic refined copper production will maintain a high-speed growth in 2019. Overseas disturbed production capacity may return to the market, and overseas refined copper production will have a restorative growth. The growth rate of global refined copper supply in 2019 may be 2.9%-3.6%, and the elasticity will depend more on policy changes

"the weakening of fundamentals will appear in the first quarter of 2019, echoing macro expectations. The early price decline has reflected some expectations, but it is not enough. The weakening trend of fundamentals in the second half of 2019 may be stabilized, superimposed with the dividends brought by policy expectations, and the pessimistic expectations will gradually improve. Taking into account the use of all kinds of financial funds at all levels", Cao Yang said that in terms of prices, it is expected that the copper price will fluctuate and decline in the first half of 2019, The bottom may rise in the second half of the year

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